Robotics, Automation, AI and our Economy

Pew Research found 62% believe artificial intelligence will have a major impact on jobholders overall in the next 20 years, but only 28% think it will significantly affect them personally. World Economic Forum, employers estimate that 44% of workers’ skills will be disrupted in the next five years. PwC found only 36% of respondents as a whole strongly or moderately agree that the skills needed to succeed in their job will change significantly over the next five years, and only 43% say they have a clear sense of how the skills required for their job will change at all over that span. 

25% of American jobs are highly susceptible to automation. Everyone will eventually be impacted by the drive for increased productivity, 24×7 automation, rapid learning form data, and even creativity from generative AI. It won’t matter if you are in one of the Highest Paying OccupationsFastest Growing Job Sectors, or one with the Most New Jobs. Sure, some of the estimated 73 million or 46% of workers estimated to be eliminated from automation by 2030 could switch to one of the projected 11.9 million new jobs. However, a potential reduction of 61.1 million workers from our Labor Force is still cause for serious concern.

Me, I am rethinking everything! So the first question I had for chatGPT:
“If our GDP is reliant on 68% of consumer spending, our Government’s federal income is reliant on 52% from Individual Income Taxes along with 30% from Payroll Taxes, how will we make up the massive shortfalls from automation job losses that could grossly add to our existing $31 trillion in national debt, or crater our economy despite trillions in cost savings for businesses?”

chatGPT’s Response: The potential impact of AI job loss on the economy and government revenue is a complex issue that requires careful consideration. While it’s true that advancements in AI and automation may lead to job displacement in certain sectors, it’s important to note that these technologies also have the potential to create new jobs and drive economic growth in other areas. However, if the transition is not managed properly, it could result in short-term disruptions and challenges.

To address the potential shortfalls in government revenue, several approaches could be considered:

  1. Workforce retraining and reskilling: Investing in education and training programs can help workers adapt to the changing job market and acquire the skills needed for emerging industries. By equipping individuals with new skills, they can remain employable and contribute to the economy, thereby minimizing the impact on government revenue.
  2. Stimulating new industries and job creation: Encouraging the growth of industries related to AI, automation, and other emerging technologies can create new job opportunities. This can be achieved through supportive policies, funding for research and development, and incentivizing businesses to invest in these areas.
  3. Tax reforms: As the nature of work changes, policymakers may need to consider adjustments to the tax system. This could involve reassessing income tax structures, exploring alternative sources of revenue, or introducing new tax models that align with evolving economic dynamics.
  4. Universal Basic Income (UBI) or similar programs: Some propose implementing a UBI or similar social safety net programs to provide a financial cushion for individuals affected by job displacement. These programs can help mitigate the immediate economic hardships, maintain consumer spending levels, and stimulate demand in the economy.
  5. Economic diversification: Governments can focus on diversifying their economies to reduce reliance on any single sector. By promoting a diverse range of industries, they can create a more resilient economy that is less susceptible to disruptions caused by technological advancements.

It’s worth noting that predicting the precise impact of AI on the job market and government revenue is challenging. The future effects will depend on various factors, including the pace of technological advancement, policy responses, and societal adaptations. Therefore, it is crucial for policymakers to closely monitor these developments and adopt proactive strategies to manage the potential challenges and leverage the opportunities presented by AI and automation.

I would also add doubling down on the collective bargaining power of unions.
While they can not stop things, they may tilt them in your favor.

Oregon’s Labor Market and Tech Sector

High-technology is a pillar of Oregon’s economy. Overall it accounts for about 5% of statewide jobs, but due to its higher productivity and pay, the sector is 11% of overall wages paid and 11% of state GDP. Given the strong growth in recent years, the sector’s employment today is now at an all-time high, surpassing even the bubbliest of peaks of the dotcom era more than two decades ago.

Macroeconomic Headwinds

Consumer spending on physical goods remains robust in Q1 as service spending rapidly recovers. Forty-year inflation highs, supply chain issues, geopolitics, and a tight labor market contribute to downward pressure on spending. Additionally, Bloomberg Economics estimates that policymakers in the Group of Seven countries will shrink their balance sheets by about $410 billion during the remainder of 2022. It’s a stark turnaround from last year when they added $2.8 trillion — taking the total Quantitative Easing to more than $8 trillion since Covid-19 arrived.